Here are the best earnings season trades left

Published Fri, Jan 23 20157:01 AM EST

Evelyn Cheng @in/evelyn-cheng-53b23624 @chengevelyn

The year-end holiday boost makes video-game and semiconductor stocks top trades for the second half of earnings season, analysis suggests. CNBC used historical data from Bespoke Investment Group and quantitative tool Kensho to find the companies most likely to beat earnings estimates—and post higher returns—in the days following their earnings reports. Holiday sales from the last quarter of the calendar year usually make it the best one for video games, said IHS analyst Christine Arrington. In contrast, the sector tends to get a seasonal hit in the first quarter of the year, so this should be considered a short-term investment. The earnings data and analyst opinion looks most bullish on Take-Two Interactive , which reports third-quarter earnings on Feb. 3. "We believe Grand Theft Auto V for next gen plus digital sales drove solid holiday numbers, which positions the company for a beat-and-raise quarter when full-year third-quarter results are reported in early February," said Stifel in a Jan. 5 note. The research company has a "buy" rating on Take-Two. Activision Blizzard is another one to watch. "Next-gen consoles are selling well and seeing a meaningful shift towards full game downloads, and there appear to be increasing opportunities for micro-transactions, increasing the profitability of console games," said a report from Atlantic Equities, which is "overweight" on the maker of Call of Duty. Read More Video games spring back on strong console sales The games driving sales for Electronic Arts include Dragon Age: Inquisition and sports games FIFA 15 and Madden NFL 15 , Stifel said in a Tuesday report, which increased its non-GAAP EPS by 2 cents with the view that new releases and digital products should help the gross margin. Wedbush's lead analyst, Michael Pachter, said in a Tuesday report on Electronic Arts that they "expect continued growth of EA's digital revenues, and believe that the company is well-positioned to exploit what we expect to be an uptick in game sales now that both next-gen consoles are off to a solid start." To be sure, Stifel said the absence of a first-person shooter game such as last year's Battlefield 4 , as well as FX headwinds, contributed to an expected decline in revenue. Upcoming results should show semiconductor firms are a bullish derivative play on the hot tech gadget holiday season. IHS consumer electronics senior research analyst Jordan Selburn said semiconductors historically do better in the third quarter as manufacturers place orders for their holiday products, but recently the demand has evened out. Indeed, he added that "in 2014 we saw slight growth in the semiconductor sector in the fourth quarter." John Vinh, senior research analyst at Pacific Crest, agreed. "Right now we're starting to see stabilization in the semiconductor industry," he said, noting expanded applications for chipmakers in industrial and audio equipment. "I think this quarter was very strong for mobile-related semiconductor companies." NXP Semiconductors is especially well-poised for gains as it provides the sensor chip for the near-field communication technology that powers Apple Pay, analysts said. "One of the reasons we think (NXPI) will outperform is because of primary strong demand on iPhone 6 launch," Vinh said, highlighting year 2014 as a "really strong selling season" that will cause the stock to "exceed expectations." Pacific Crest also has an "outperform" rating on Monolithic Power , which provides semiconductor components for products such as TVs, car navigation systems and refrigerators. "MPS has a strong portfolio of new products targeting new markets to drive growth ahead. MPS's innovative Monolithic Power Modules (MPM) family of products―highly integrated power supplies―that covers a wide range of current ratings, is being rolled out rapidly," said Stifel, which has "buy" rating on the stock. In the semiconductor equipment category, wafer fabrication equipment and services provider Lam Research also has high ratings, with 19 out of 23 ratings on FactSet "buy" or "overweight." The historical study using Kensho, a quantitative analytics tool used by hedge funds, looked at stock performance one day after quarterly earnings beat by one cent or more, for 12 or more quarters since Jan. 1, 2005. Read More Emotions count: Is your brain wired for investing? The Bespoke Investment study listed the percentage of times that earnings per share and revenue have each beat estimates, as well as the average percent change in share price for the day and week following. CNBC only considered stocks that gained on all those occasions and had a 69 percent chance or more of beating estimates. DISCLOSURE: CNBC's parent NBCUniversal is a minority investor in Kensho.

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Credit: Activision-Blizzard) -

Activision-Blizzard

The year-end holiday boost makes video-game and semiconductor stocks top trades for the second half of earnings season, analysis suggests.

CNBC used historical data from Bespoke Investment Group and quantitative tool Kensho to find the companies most likely to beat earnings estimates—and post higher returns—in the days following their earnings reports.